Martin Rypdal

Professor/Department Head

Department of Mathematics and Statistics 

UiT The Arctic University of Norway


Link to department

Link to the Complex Systems Modelling Group

Link to the DYNAMO Center

Preprints and open access: 


    • Boers, N. and M. Rypdal, Critical slowing down suggests that the western Greenland Ice Sheet is close to a tipping point, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 2021, 118 (21) e2024192118 (Link to paper)


    • Rypdal M., N. Boers, H.-B. Fredriksen, K.-U. Eiselt, A. Johansen, A. Martinsen, E. F. Mentzoni, R. G. Graversen, and K. Rypdal, Estimating remaining carbon budgets using temperature responses informed by CMIP6, Frontiers in Climate 2021, 3, 75. (Link to paper)


    • Rypdal M., K. Rypdal, O. Løvsletten, S. H. Sørbye, E. Ytterstad, and F. M. Bianchi,

      Estimation of Excess Mortality and Years of Life Lost to COVID-19 in Norway and Sweden between March and November 2020, Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2021, 18, 3913.

      (link to paper)


    • Rypdal K., Bianchi F. M., Rypdal M., Intervention fatigue is the primary cause of strong secondary waves in the COVID-19 pandemic. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17, 9592 (link to paper)


    • Nova, N., Deyle, E.R., Shocket, M.S., MacDonald, A.J., Childs, M.L., Rypdal, M., Sugihara, G. and Mordecai, E.A. (2020), Susceptible host availability modulates climate effects on dengue dynamics. Ecology Letters. (Link to paper)

        


    • Rypdal, K. and M. Rypdal, A parsimonious description and cross-country analysis of COVID-19 epidemic curve, Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 17(18), 2020, 6487
             (Link to paper)


    • Rypdal M., Rypdal V., Jakobsen P., Ytterstad E., Løvsletten O., Klingenberg C., Rypdal K., Modelling Suggests Limited Change in the Reproduction Number from Reopening Norwegian Kindergartens and Schools During the COVID-19 Pandemic (Link to paper)


    • Rypdal, M. and G. Sugihara, Inter-outbreak stability reflects the size of the susceptible pool and forecasts magnitudes of seasonal epidemics, Nature Communications 10, 2019, 2374 (Link to paper)


    • Rypdal V., J. Guzman, A. Henrey, T. Loughin, M. Glerup, E. D. Arnstad, K. Aalto, M. Rygg, S. Nielsen, T. Herlin, A. Fasth, L. Berntson, M. Rypdal, E. Nordal, Validation of prediction models of severe disease course and non-achievement of remission in juvenile idiopathic arthritis: part 1—results of the Canadian model in the Nordic cohort, Arthritis Research & Therapy 21, 2019 (Link to paper)


    • Henrey A., V. Rypdal, M. Rypdal, T. Loughin, E. Nordal, and J. Guzman, for the ReACCh-Out and NoSPeR Investigators,Validation of prediction models of severe disease course and non-achievement of remission in juvenile idiopathic arthritis part 2: results of the Nordic model in the Canadian cohort, Arthritis Research & Therapy 22, 2020 (Link to paper)


    • Myrvoll-Nilsen, E., S. H. Sørbye, H.-B. Fredriksen, H. Rue, M. Rypdal, Statistical estimation of global surface temperature response to forcing under the assumption of temporal scaling, Earth System Dynamics (2020), 11, 329–345. (Link to paper).


    • Myrvoll-Nilsen, E. H-B. Fredriksen, S. H. Sørbye, M. Rypdal, Warming trends and long-range dependent climate variability since year 1900: a Bayesian approach. Frontiers in Earth Science 7, 2019, 214 (Link to paper)


    • Rypdal, M., H.-B. Fredriksen, E. Myrvold-Nilsen, S. H. Sørbye and K. Rypdal, Emergent Scale Invariance and Climate Sensitivity, Climate, 2018. 6(4), 93. (Link to paper)


    • Franzke, C., S. Barbosa, R. Blender, H.-B. Fredriksen, T. Laepple, F. Lambert, T. Nilsen, K. Rypdal, M. Rypdal, M. G. Scotto, S. Vannitsem, N. W. Watkins, L. Yang, N. Yuan, The Structure of Climate Variability Across Scales, Reviews of Geophysics, 2020 58, e2019RG000657 (Link to paper).


    • Nilsen, T., J. P. Werner, D. V. Divine and M. Rypdal, Assessing the performance of the BARCAST climate field reconstruction technique for a climate with long-range memory, Climate of the Past, 2018. 14: p. 947-967. (Link to paper)


    • Rypdal, V., E. D. Arnstad, K. Aalto, L. Berntson, M. Ekelund, A. Fasth, M. Glerup, T. Herlin, S. Nielsen, S. Peltoniemi, M. Zak, M. Rygg, M. Rypdal, E. Nordal, Predicting unfavorable long-term outcome in Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis: Results from the Nordic cohort study, Arthritis Research & Therapy 2018, 20:91 (Link to paper)


    • Rypdal, M., H.-B. Fredriksen, K. Rypdal and R. Steene, Emergent constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity, Nature 2018, 563: p. E4-E5. (link to paper)  


    • Rypdal, M., V. Rypdal, J. A. Burney, D. Cayan, E. Bainto, S. Skochko, A. H. Tremoulet, J. Creamean, C. Shimizu, J. Kim and J. C. Burns, Clustering and climate associations of Kawasaki Disease in San Diego County suggest environmental triggers, Scientific Reports 2018. 8: 16140. (link to paper)


    • Fredriksen, H-.B. and M. Rypdal, Long-range persistence in global surface temperatures explained by linear multi-box energy balance models, Journal of Climate, 2017. 30: p. 7157-7168. (Link to paper)


    • Theodorsen A., O. E. Garcia and M. Rypdal, Statistical properties of a filtered Poisson process with additive random noise: distributions, correlations and moment estimation, Physica Scripta, 2017,  92(5), 054002. (paper)


    • Rypdal, M. and K. Rypdal, Late Quaternary temperature variability described as abrupt transitions on a 1/f noise background. Earth System Dynamics, 2016. 7: p. 281-293. (Link to paper)


    • Rypdal, M., Early-Warning Signals for the onsets of Greenland Interstadials and the Younger Dryas-Preboreal transition. Journal of Climate, 2016. 29(11): p. 4047-4056. (Link to paper)


    • Løvsletten, O. and M. Rypdal, Statistics of Regional Surface Temperatures after 1900: Long-Range versus Short-Range Dependence and Significance of Warming Trends, Journal of Climate, 2016. 29(11): p. 4057-4068. (Link to paper)


    • Rypdal, K. and M. Rypdal, Comment on "Scaling regimes and linear/nonlinear responses of last millennium climate to volcanic and solar forcing" by S. Lovejoy and C. Varotsos. Earth System Dynamics Discussions, 2016. (Link to paper)


    • Rypdal, K., M. Rypdal, and S. Holm, Detection and attribution: how is the solar signal identified and distinguished from the response to other forcings?, in Earth's climate response to a changing Sun. 2015, EDP Sciences. p. 345. (pdf)


    • Rypdal, K., M. Rypdal, and H.-B. Fredriksen, Spatiotemporal long-range persistence in earth's temperature field: Analysis of stochastic-diffusive energy balance models. Journal of Climate, 2015. 28(21): p. 8379-8395. (Link to paper)


    • Rypdal, K. and M. Rypdal, Modeled impact of total solar irradiance (TSI) forcing, in Earth's climate response to a changing Sun. 2015, EDP Sciences. p. 345.


    • Østvand, L., K. Rypdal, and M. Rypdal, Statistical significance of rising and oscillatory trends in global ocean and land temperature in the past 160 years. Earth System Dynamics Discussions, 2014. 5: p. 327-362. (Link to discussion)


    • Østvand, L., T. Nilsen, K. Rypdal, D. Divine, V., and M. Rypdal, Long-range memory in internal and forced dynamics of millennium-long climate model simulations. Earth System Dynamics, 2014. 5(2): p. 295-308. (Link to paper)


    • Rypdal, M. and K. Rypdal, Long-memory effects in linear response models of Earth's temperature and implications for future global warming. Journal of Climate, 2014. 27(14): p. 5240-5258. (Link to paper)


    • Rypdal, M., E. Sirnes, O. Løvsletten, and K. Rypdal, Assessing market uncertainty by means of a time-varying intermittency parameter for asset price fluctuations. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2013: p. 8. (pdf)


    • Rypdal, M. and O. Løvsletten, Modeling electricity spot prices using mean-reverting multifractal processes. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2013. 392(1): p. 194-207. (pdf)


    • Rypdal, K., L. Østvand, and M. Rypdal, Long-range memory in Earth's surface temperature on time scales from months to centuries. Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, 2013. 118(13): p. 7046-7062. (pdf)


    • Løvsletten, O. and M. Rypdal. A multifractal apprach to inference in finance, 2012 (preprint) 


    • Rypdal, M. and K. Rypdal, Is there long-range memory in solar activity on timescales shorter than the sunspot period? Journal of Geophysical Research - Space Physics, 2012. 117: p. 11.


    • Rypdal, K. and M. Rypdal, Stochastic properties of solar activity proxies. Astrophysics and Space Science Proceedings, 2012. 33: p. 227-232. (pdf)


    • Løvsletten, O. and M. Rypdal, Approximated maximum likelihood estimation in multifractal random walks. Physical Review E. Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics, 2012. 85(4): p. 8.


    • Rypdal, M. and K. Rypdal, Discerning a linkage between solar wind turbulence and ionospheric dissipation by a method of confined multifractal motions. Journal of Geophysical Research - Space Physics, 2011. 226: p. A02202.


    • Rypdal, K., B. Klumov, B. Kozelov, R. Kube, and M. Rypdal, Exploring the Analogy Between Freezing of a 2D Yukawa Liquid and 2D Decaying Turbulence in Fluids. AIP Conference Proceedings, 2011. 1397(1): p. 72-77. (pdf)


    • Hall, C., K. Rypdal, and M. Rypdal, The E region at 69 degrees N, 19 degrees E: Trends, significances, and detectability. Journal of Geophysical Research - Space Physics, 2011. 116: p. A05309.


    • Rypdal, M. and K. Rypdal, Testing Hypotheses about Sun-Climate Complexity Linking. Physical Review Letters, 2010. 104(12): p. 4.


    • Rypdal, M. and K. Rypdal, Stochastic modeling of the AE index and its relation to fluctuations in B-z of the IMF on time scales shorter than substorm duration. Journal of Geophysical Research - Space Physics, 2010. 115: p. 15.


    • Rypdal, M. and K. Rypdal, Rypdal and Rypdal reply. A Reply to the Comment by Nicola Scafetta and Bruce J. West. Physical Review Letters, 2010. 105(21): p. 219802.


    • Rypdal, M. and K. Rypdal, A stochastic theory for temporal fluctuations in self-organized critical systems. New Journal of Physics, 2008. 10: p. 123010/1-11.


    • Rypdal, K., B.V. Kozelov, S. Ratynskaia, B. Klumov, C. Knapek, and M. Rypdal, Scale-free vortex cascade emerging from random forcing in a strongly coupled system. New Journal of Physics, 2008. 10: p. 093018.


    • Rypdal, K., M. Rypdal, T. Zivkovic, and B.V. Kozelov, Complexity in astro and geospace systems: the turbulence versus SOC controversy. AIP Conference Proceedings, 2007. 932: p. 203-208.


    • Kruglikov, B.S. and M. Rypdal, Entropy via multiplicity. Discrete and Continuous Dynamical Systems, 2006. 16: p. 395-410.


    • Kruglikov, B.S. and M. Rypdal, Dynamics and entropy in the Zhang model of self-organized criticality. Journal of statistical physics, 2006. 122.


    • Kruglikov, B.S. and M. Rypdal, A piece-wise affine contracting map with positive entropy. Discrete and Continuous Dynamical Systems, 2006. 16: p. 393-394 (pdf).


    • Rypdal, M. and K. Rypdal, Modelling temporal fluctuations in avalanching systems. Physical Review E, 2008. 78, 051127.